Karl's Mortgage and Related Info Site

Mortgage pricing ended the week slightly better by about .300 and kept the 30-year conforming fixed mortgage rate around 5.00%,

The Employment report was weaker than expected last week and the unemployment rate remained at unchanged at 10.0%.

The release of the Fed minutes was no surprise- they are committed to keep rates low "for an extended period of time." The minutes also revealed they care contemplating the continuation or extension of the MBS purchase program which has helped keep mortgage rates low through 2009. If they do not, the market will have to organically absorb $15-$20 billion per month on it's own- likely to increase rates due to supply/demand dynamics.

The Week Ahead:

While this week will bring us a few data points that could move markets, it will mostly be about the Treasury Note auctions. We have 3yr, 10yr, and 30yr Note auctions this week (Tues-Thurs) that will be very important. If these auctions go well- we could see mortgage pricing improve slightly more this week, but if these auctions do not go well, we could see mortgage rates back on the path to going higher.

On Thursday we will get a look at how retail sales are going as well as the weekly jobless claims.

On Friday we will get a look at how consumers are feeling and a view of how inflation is (or is not) working it's way through the economy with the CPI report.

Monday: No important data. We do have a 10-year inflation indexed note auction at 1:00.

Tuesday: We have the 3-year note auction at 1:00 and this could set the tone for the rest of the week, although the markets will be watching the 10-yr and 30-yr much closer on Wed and Thurs.

Wednesday: We get the very important 10-yr note auction at 1:00 and the Fed releases the Beige Book at 2:00.

Thursday: Retail Sales - we get a look at the retail sales report and traders will be watching closely. We also get the Weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 and the 30-yr note auction at 1:00.

Friday: We get a view of inflation at the consumer level with the CPI report at 8:30 as well as a look at how consumers feel with the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report at 9:55.Mortgage pricing was a little volatile last week, but ended the week unchanged. However, mortgage rates moved up by .60 for the month of December, or down by about 200 bps in price/rebate. We are still hovering around 5.00% for a Conv. 30-Year fixed mortgage.

It appears low mortgage rates will be with us at least until the Fed's MBS purchase program comes to an end in March 2010 as scheduled. There are many speculating that the Fed may find a way to extend this program in some form to continue to support housing as it appears to be just getting legs under it. Low market rates in general will be with us for "an extended period of time" as committed by the Fed and Ben Bernanke. While there are discussions around possible exit strategies, none of the members seem to feel that any immediate or urgent action must be taken anytime soon relative to market rates.

If the data continues to support an economic recovery, we expect mortgage rates to wander in a range from about 5.00% to 5.25% on the Conv. 30-year fixed, but to be choppy over the next 60 days.

Mortgage Market Advisory Disclaimer

This is only our opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all parties. This service is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. None of the information provided constitutes a solicitation, offer, or recommendation by NHLA to buy or sell any security, or to provide legal, professional, tax, accounting, or investment advice. Every lender's price desk has their own strategies and reactions to market movements. Our information is simply based on market movements and does not predict or report potential pricing adjustments by particular lenders.

Karl Peidl
Accredited Loan Consultant
Pleasant Valley Home Mortgage Corp.
Phone: 856-252-1224
Cell: 609-254-6687
kpeidl@pvhmconline.com
www.karlpeidl.com

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