The Mortgage Market Week Ahead

The Mortgage Market AdvisoryTM

The Week of February 8, 2010

 Provided by Karl Peidl 

 

  

    

Last week was another good positive one for mortgage pricing as we picked up about another .250 in pricing improvement. The stock market was very volatile, but by the end of the week stocks were only slightly down after a negative start in January. Overall, stocks are down about 7% since the most recent high just a few weeks ago, which has been positive for bonds and mortgage pricing.

The Week Ahead:

This week brings us the release of only three relevant economic data points, but we will have three Treasury note auctions to contend with as well. Given the current defensive sentiment, experts are expecting the auctions to go well - which would be bullish and supportive of current mortgage pricing.

Overall this week, look for the Treasury Auctions (Tues-Thurs), along with the Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless claims reports to be the most impactful to mortgage bonds and pricing.  Also keep an eye on the stock markets.  If stocks continue to retreat and sell-off, this would be generally good for bonds and mortgage pricing.  If, however, a correction has been made and stocks start to trend back upwards, this would be generally negative for mortgage pricing.

Monday: No reports or bond auctions.

Tuesday: We will get a view of the level of Wholesale inventories in the morning, but more importantly we will get the 3-year Note Au ction at 1:00 ET which could be impactful to mortgage pricing that day.

Wednesday: We will get a view of the US Trade Balance in the morning, but the 10-year Note Auction at 1:00 ET will be watched very closely by bond traders. This auction, along with the Thursday auction, could be expected to be the most impactful for mortgage pricing this week.

Thursday: We will get a very important report of the week in the morning for the January reading of retail sales. Retail sales are being watched very closely as all eyes are on the US consumer since their spending represents two-thirds of US GDP. A strong reading would be negative for bonds and mortgage pricing, while a weaker reading would be good for mortgage rates. Also in the morning, we will get the Weekly Jobless Claims number and it can be impactful for mortgage pricing. We will also get the 30-year Note Auction at 1:00 ET and it could be very influential for mortgage pricing.

Friday: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report is issued in the morning and can often be a market mover. If consumer sentiment is stronger than expected it would be negative for mortgage bonds, while a weaker report would be positive for mortgage pricing.

Economic Calendar:

Monday, 2/8/10

No Reports or Note Auctions

Tuesday, 2/2/10

1:00 3-year Note Auction - *HIGH*

Wednesday, 2/3/10

8:30 US Trade Balance - Low

1:00 10-year Note Auction - *HIGH*

Thursday, 2/4/10

8:30 Jan. Retail Sales - *HIGH*

8:30 Weekly Jobless Claims - *HIGH*

1:00 30-year Note Auction - *HIGH*

Friday, 2/5/10

9:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - *HIGH*


 

Mortgage Market Advisory Disclaimer



This is only our opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all parties. This service is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. None of the information provided constitutes a solicitation, offer, or recommendation by NHLA to buy or sell any security, or to provide legal, professional, tax, accounting, or investment advice. Every lender's price desk has their own strategies and reactions to market movements. Our information is simply based on market movements and does not predict or report potential pricing adjustments by particular lenders.

 Copyright © 2010 National Home Loan Advocates LLC                                                                                          

 

Karl Peidl
Accredited Loan Consultant
Pleasant Valley Home Mortgage Corp.
Phone: 856-252-1224
Cell: 609-254-6687
kpeidl@pvhmconline.com
www.karlpeidl.com

0 comments • Karl Peidl - Accredited Loan Consultant • February 08 2010 02:00PM