Karl's Mortgage and Related Info Site

Two years ago, the Washington Post reported that home loan rates shot up to nearly 7% from 6% in less than a week. The volatility demonstrated that week resulted from turmoil in the financial markets and a lack of buyers for mortgage backed securities (MBS).

That volatility continued through November 2008 when the Federal Reserve announced a program designed to lower rates and provide stability to housing. That program has been incredibly successful, driving rates to the lowest levels of all time. However, as this program will end March 31st, people want to know: Where are rates going now?

Looking for Clarity
This month YOU Magazine turns to Barry Habib, Chairman of Mortgage Success Source, for his viewpoint. Mr. Habib has been very accurate in his assessments of both the financial markets and the direction of mortgage rates, providing education and market information to 30,000 home loan professionals across the country.

Mortgage rates are tied to the price of MBS and like other fixed income vehicles similar to U.S. treasuries, the higher the demand and price, the lower the corresponding rate or yield will be. Therein lies the issue. Throughout 2009, the Federal Reserve was the primary buyer for MBS, purchasing as much as 80% or more of all MBS issued in any given month.

The concern is that when the Fed concludes the program, who will step in to pick up the supply of mortgages for the rest of 2010 and beyond. If investor interest is scarce, look for rates to rise. Also, filling the hole with avid buyers is not the only potential headwind facing MBS and other fixed income investments.

Think About It this Way
Throughout the boom years of real estate, homeowners could just about set any price they wanted when the time came to sell their property. In many cases, simply putting a sign in the front yard would bring multiple offers, driving the price of the home up.

The Federal Reserve has acted in this capacity, supplying heated buying interest for the last fourteen months, in essence, setting the price of MBS and keeping interest rates low. When the Fed stops buying in April, the concern that exists isn't so much that there won't be buyers for home loans but what price those buyers will be willing to pay. The lower the price that new MBS buyers settle on, the higher the rates that consumers will have to pay.

Little Consensus Among Experts
Up until now, the predominant opinion of economists and financial pundits has been that interest rates will rise. The only disagreement has been to what degree and how quickly rates will do so.

On one extreme, David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist of Morgan Stanley, expects that rates could climb by more than two points before year end. On the other hand, CNBC has recently paraded people before the camera with the opinion that rates may remain closely unchanged.

Mr. Habib holds fast to his original assertion though that home loan rates are set to rise. "Interest rates for a 30 Year Fixed Rate could rise to 6% by year end and consumers need to be prepared for that." Habib goes on to state that MBS are similar to other fixed income investments that are subject to inflation risk. Inflation erodes the value of bonds and forces rates to rise.

Inflation risk exists not only from the possibility of an improving economy but also increased debt coming from the U.S. Treasury to support stimulus packages and the budget.

One More Thing to Consider
The purchasing of MBS by the Fed does not occur immediately after a loan closes. Several weeks must pass after the consumers close on their mortgages before they can actually be delivered, packaged and sold to investors like the Fed.

Because of this, many people anticipate that any potential move higher in rates may not occur until April 1st, after the conclusion of the Fed program.

Habib states that this is not the case for many reasons. Rates have already started to move higher over the past few months, and will likely increase a bit more after the Fed stops buying - not just because the largest buyer is absent, but because speculators will be less confident and unload their positions ahead of the deadline. This gradual increase combined with what we've already seen will be meaningful, and as the year progresses, rates will oscillate higher still. It's like walking up a long staircase...you don't realize how high up you are, until you turn around and look down.

What Now?
If you are a candidate for refinancing your mortgage, call your mortgage professional today to lock in your best opportunity for a low rate. In addition to the potential for rates to rise, there are also other programs in place...that are scheduled to end in June...to assist people who otherwise could not refinance due to loan to value.

For prospective home buyers, any increase in interest rates erodes your purchasing power. In other words, a 1% increase in rate represents an approximate decline in purchasing power by 10%. For example, if rates increase by 1%, people who qualify for a $200,000 purchase price today may only qualify for a purchase price of $180,000 afterwards.

For those who qualify for the tax credit for first-time and repeat home buyers, another deadline also exists. The last day to obtain a contract to qualify is April 30th and closing must occur by the end of June. Miss either deadline and it could cost you up to $6,500 or $8,000, depending on eligibility.

No matter which way you look at it, waiting could cost you. Mortgage rates are still near the best levels we have ever seen. If you are in the position to move forward with obtaining a mortgage, the best decision would be to act sooner rather than later.

Karl Peidl
Accredited Loan Consultant
Pleasant Valley Home Mortgage Corp.
Phone: 856-252-1224
Cell: 609-254-6687
kpeidl@pvhmconline.com
www.karlpeidl.com

New Jersey: Licensed by the N. J. Department of Banking and Insurance Delaware: Licensed Lender by the Delaware Office of the State Bank Commissioner.

Trigger Leads: Protect Your Personal Data

Did you know that the major credit bureaus sell your personal information? It's true! Known as "trigger leads", the files of borrowers applying for a home loan are immediately flagged, packaged, and sold by the credit bureaus to the highest bidders.

For about $25 to $100 or more, your name and certain specifics about your credit report, including your address, phone number, mortgage history, and even your FICO score range, are sold to unscrupulous mortgage companies which then blindly solicit your business. This results in numerous unwanted phone calls and junk mail offers which are in no way associated with your real estate agent or loan professional.

Unfortunately, no legislation presently exists to prevent the credit bureaus from profiting at your expense. As a trigger lead, you are simply at the mercy of any number of too-good-to-be-true offers designed specifically to try and discredit the mortgage professionals you know and trust.

Don't be fooled! Ultimately, there are only a limited number of sources where lenders may turn to obtain mortgage money, and it's unlikely that you will find an unbelievably low rate without an unbelievably high cost. That's why, prior to taking an application for any loan program, I always encourage my clients to opt-out of credit bureau solicitations by visiting www.optoutprescreen.com. For new home buyers, this is the simplest way to avoid the problem altogether.

As you embark on what could be the largest financial transaction of your life, it's important to have a professional mortgage specialist on your team who has your best interests at heart.

If you'd like more information on trigger leads, credit reports, or the various mortgage products available to help you reach your financial goals and needs, call me today.

Getting Your Business Online
It's Cheaper - and Easier - Than You Think!

When dealing with technology, it seems like the less you know, the more you pay. But that doesn't mean you have to be a computer geek to avoid getting taken for a ride. Armed with a little knowledge about where to look and what to look for, you can avoid the high costs that the less-informed are forced to pay.

Let's take a look at personal web sites, for example. You've probably heard many Internet buzzwords flying around the last few years. Things like domain names, web hosting, and web design, to name a few. For some people, this techno-babble stops them in their tracks. They either throw in the towel early, or look for some hot shot (expensive!) web developer to handle it for them. But it's really not that difficult to figure out. Let's first define some key terms.

The domain name is the name of the site, like www.stellarrealestate.com. Domain names are purchased for one-year intervals, though you can purchase them for several years in advance. There are a few big names (and several smaller ones) that are authorized to sell domain names. The going price for a domain name for one year is less than $10. Personally, I recommend www.godaddy.com.

Web hosting is the service of placing your web site on a computer that is available to web surfers across the Internet. Although you live in one town, your website will probably be hosted on a computer in some far-off place like Kalamazoo, Michigan. The company that owns that computer charges you a monthly fee - generally around $10/month. My recommendation for affordable but reliable web hosting is www.godaddy.com or www.50megs.com.

Web design is probably the most expensive and involved step. There is an unlimited number of web design firms, and an equally high number of freelancers to choose from. If you have very particular features in mind, this is where you'll pay anywhere from several hundred to several thousand dollars to build the site you envisioned. But there is another solution.

Consider a template-style web hosting company. They typically have pre-designed templates that allow you to drop in your information, and it can be much cheaper than building a site from scratch. Most of these companies include the web hosting with the cost of the web design, and charge as little as $10/month.

Look for a company that specializes in your industry. Real estate professionals, for example, would want to consider www.blitzdevelopment.com or www.vertexsites.com. You'll often find a lot of extra features such as calendars, online calculators, information forms, live news feeds, and more, at no extra charge. These features add up fast if you hire someone to build custom versions just for you.

I'd love to talk with you about other strategies I have used to take my business to the next level!